NEW YORK: US Treasury yields fell on Thursday with benchmark yields hitting near two-week lows on revived bets the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates only slowly due to weak economic growth and inflation stuck below its 2-percent goal.
The US central bank on Wednesday held its target range on short-term rates unchanged at 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent, and left the door open for a possible rate increase in December.
Analysts also pointed to Fed policymakers’ forecasts, which they said reduced their expected average number of annual rate increases to two from three for 2017 to 2018.
Traders’ perception that a December rate hike is far from a sure thing, and that the Fed is on a slow path of rate normalization, led them to favor longer-dated Treasuries over shorter-dated issues. The move pushed the yield curve to its flattest level in more than a week.
Federal funds futures implied traders saw about a 58-percent chance the Fed would raise rates at its Dec. 13-14 meeting, unchanged from Wednesday, according to CME Group’s FedWatch program.
In addition to the Fed’s latest signals, the Bank of Japan’s change of its policy stance on Wednesday, when it said it would focus on targeting bond yields and allowing inflation to rise above 2 percent, is seen supportive for bonds and stocks worldwide.
US benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 9/32 in price, yielding 1.637 percent, down 4 basis points from Wednesday. It touched 1.6080 percent which was its lowest since Sept. 9, Reuters data showed.
The yield gap between five-year and 30-year Treasuries contracted to 118 basis points, about 1 basis point flatter than Wednesday.
The yield curve steepened from its initial levels after data showed domestic jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a two-month low in the week ended Sept. 17, suggested underlying strength in the labor market.
But the yield curve resumed its flattening after a surprise 0.9 percent drop in existing home sales in August.
On the supply front, the government sold $11 billion of 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities to the strongest overall bid since May 2014.—Reuters
