Reports indicate that the government has been unable to disburse 37 billion rupee subsidy on fertilizer for the current Kharif crop as the scheme lacked critical information, for example, effective date, farmer registration process and the implementation mechanism. Rs 37 billion was a component of the 1.2 trillion rupee Covid-19 relief package announced by the Prime Minister on 24 March 2020 which was approved by the Cabinet on 31 March; the Economic Coordination Committee of the Cabinet on 13 May 2020 approved a 100 billion rupee package out of the total 1.2 trillion rupees earmarked for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and the agriculture sector, including the 37 billion rupees for fertilizer subsidy prepared by the Ministry of National Food Security and Research in consultation with the stakeholders. The fertilizer subsidy was targeted for the current Kharif crop at the rate of 925 rupees per bag on DAP and other phosphatic fertilizers and 243 rupees per bag on nitrogen fertilizers. The subsidy was to be implemented by the provinces and the disbursement was to be through a scratch card scheme that was already being implemented by Punjab.

Critics of the government would no doubt point to the delay in preparing the agriculture relief package by the Ministry for National Food and Security and Research (nearly a month and a half after the Prime Minister announced the Covid-19 package) and then allocating 37 percent of the package meant for SMEs and the farm sector on fertilizer subsidy alone based on the rationale that fertilizer accounts for 10 to 15 percent of all input costs. Be that as it may, the delay may lead to failure to achieve the objective of facilitating farmers for the Kharif season which is disturbing as the good intent of the Prime Minister in formulating the Covid-19 package appears to have been severely compromised as far as this component is concerned.

The other area of serious concern with respect to the farm sector is the locust attack and the sustained failure to deal with it. Experts have maintained that unless the government deals with the locust attacks the country could face up to 800 billion rupee loss of productivity that in turn would create a food security issue. True; locusts are attacking crops in Pakistan, Iran, India, Oman and other countries and therefore the best way forward would have been consultations leading to cooperation to deal with this menace at a regional level (Food and Agriculture Organisation did set up meetings between India and Pakistan to prevent the swarms from spreading) yet unfortunately regional politics militate against a joint approach.

The Prime Minister declared an emergency to protect crops and help farmers in early February 2020 and sought international assistance to deal with the worst locust infestation in over two decades. Pakistan has sought Chinese help with aerial spraying but farmers maintain that favourable weather conditions and a delayed government response were the key factors helping locusts breed and attack crops.

Disturbingly, this has been the hallmark of the present administration. Delay in dealing with a crisis exacerbates the crisis making any targeted strategy ineffective as the situation worsens due to the delay. And unsurprisingly, farm sector output, contributing around 20 percent to the country’s GDP (and the percentage is higher if one takes account of farm output being used as a major input by industrial units) has been scaled down by one percent for the current year.

There appears to be a tendency amongst the country’s economic team leaders as well as associated ministries to lay the entire blame for poor performance on Covid-19. While not understating the devastation caused by the virus on the economy, the fact remains that the performance of our key macroeconomic indicators reflect a heavy toll on the economy and the quality of life of the public at large as a result of the contractionary policies being implemented pre-Covid-19. It is high time that these policies are revisited and growth instead of stifling aggregate demand becomes a major objective.