The first expo in Gwadar may have missed the point. But make no mistake; Gwadar is happening. The timely construction of expo centre and the business centres in Gwadar Port’s Free Zone as well as the setting up of five new cranes at the port is a testimony that the Chinese are committed to the cause. The Chinese commitment can also be gauged by the fact that they are expected to increase the number of cranes in the next 12-18 months, whereas feasibility work is currently underway for the five additional berths expected to be added in the next three years as per the agreed upon timeline of Gwadar port development. But whether Pakistan is or not committed is another question, and in today’s piece, BR Research attempts to answer that (See also BR Research columns Feb 1, 2018).

Progress on most of the hard infrastructure projects is slower than earlier planned. This is bad news. But not really ‘news’ per se, considering that the responsibility of completing most of these projects lies with Pakistan, and everyone knows just how slow things move in Pakistan. By that account, the delays in some of the projects are not extraordinary (see table). Compared to the timelines given to BR Research in our field survey in January 2017 plans, the expected delays as of January 2018 are no more than one year at the most. Which isn’t too bad considering that some projects in Pakistan take 18 long years to complete; whereas some never see the light of the day.

Consider also Gwadar is a city being built from scratch. The city was no more than a small sleepy fishing village since the beginning of time, or at least throughout recorded history. Gwadar’s fate should have begun to change in Singapore Port Authority days. But it didn’t for reasons well documented. The city’s fate began to change after January 2016 i.e. after 6-8 months of policy spadework following the signing of the CPEC in spring 2015. Context matters!

The city’s fate can change for the better once Gwadar’s port – the CPEC’s reason of existence – opens for business. One low hanging fruit to that end is the migration of Afghan transit trade from Karachi to Gwadar (See BR Research column: Kicking-off CPEC, Nov 1, 2017). Sources say both the Chinese port management company’s officials and the Afghan traders are open to the idea, but permissions and policy framework are pending from Islamabad. And that brings us to the subject of governance.

At present, a lot many bodies and departments are involved in deciding the future of Gwadar; some more, some less – but all are involved in one way or the other. There is Gwadar Development Authority; Balochistan Development Authority; Balochistan Coastal Development Authority; departments of Balochistan’s planning & development; fisheries; industries; public health; local government; and the CM Secretariat, over and above a host of federal and provincial ministries and institutions. This begs the question whether Pakistan can indeed match China’s need for speed without changing the city’s urban governance structure (See also Fixing Gwadar’s governance structure, October 13,2017).

Be that it may, the city’s pulse in our field visit last week was much faster than last year’s. It is difficult to differentiate between the natural pulse and that because of the expo in which more than 3000 people visited (of which at least 2000 from outside of Gwadar). But new construction was visible last week; both in public areas such as Gwadar Port Authority’s housing complex, and in private housing schemes as well as new restaurants and hotel expansions. While the management of solid waste remains poor impairing local lives, local inclusiveness programme has begun.

The building for the much-awaited Vocational Training Institute for local community isn’t yet in place, but classes have begun in a boys’ degree college. The road to Quetta is also operational, opening up Gwadar’s access to the rest of Pakistan via Karachi and via Quetta. The presence of security apparatus was all too visible. It was so visible that we are not sure if the prospective FDI players would feel safe. Guns, whether goods ones or bad, are not the kind of things investors want to see while prospecting around a town.

Note: This is the third in the series of ‘Gwadar: look and feel’; see BR Research columns dated Jan-18 2017 & Oct-11 2017

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SUMMARY OF KEY HARD INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN GWADAR


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PARTICULAR                                FORECAST/TARGETS/COMMENTS                                  TIMELINES/UPDATE AS OF JAN 2017       TIMELINE/UPDATE AS OF JAN 2018*


DEMAND FOR WATER                          12 million per day                                         2020


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SUPPLY OF WATER


Swad Dam                                  Completed; pipeline connectivity remaining.                Pipeline connectivity by Nov 2017     80% pipeline completed; completion by Apr 2018


Shadi Kaur Dam                            Completed; pipeline connectivity remaining;                Pipeline connectivity by Aug 2018     Approvals granted; bidding process soon;


                                          together both dams will supply 7.5 MGD                                                           project completion by Dec 2018 - Mar 2019


Water purchase from                       COPHC to expand its 0.2 MGD water desalination             Plan did not exist                    Expansion due to complete by Jun 2018


COPHC (port operator)                     plant to 1 MGD and sell the rest to the city


Water desalination plant                  Plant to supply 5 MGD; was due to begin by May/Jun 2017;   To be completed by Aug 2018           ECNEC approval pending; completion likely by Jun 2019


GWADAR SOLID WASTE                        Current 300 tons/day; due to increase to 3000 tons/day     No dates announced                    Composting site for current waste approved in Dec 2017


                                          by 2020. Dumping & composting site planned                                                       JCC; formal grant request made. No dates announced.


                                          north of Gwadar for 3000 tons/day


POWER DEMAND                              Current 30-35 MW; expected demand 500 MW by 2030


POWER SUPPLY


300 MW coal-fired plant                   300 MW coal-fired plant approved by the JCC;               Completion date: Jul 2019             Lol issued; land identified;


                                          project was due to begin in Jul 2017                                                             completion date Jun 2020


Import of 100 MW from Iran                Iran has completed her grid work; Pakistan                                                       No progress


ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE                       facing financing issues due to Iran sanctions


Eastbay expressway                        Linking Gwadar port with the coastal                       Completion date: Dec 2018             Ground breaking in Nov 2017; soil testing


                                          highway bypassing the city                                                                       underway; completion: Sep 2019


M-8 and N-85 Gwadarto Quetta              Completed


Gwadar to Sukkur/Multan via Khuzdar       In process                                                 To be completed by Dec 2017           No update currently available


Direct road connection Gwadarto Saindak   Approved by the JCC                                        No dates announced                    NHA preparing feasibility; no dates announced


GWADAR AIRPORT


Runway                                    Was initially due to begin in Jun 2017                     To be operational by Jun 2018         Soil testing in progress;


Terminal & complete airport               Was initially due to begin in Jun 2017                     To be operational by Jun 2019         completion seen by Jun 2019


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