DR ZAFAR HASSAN

Slow activity on cotton market

LAHORE: By and large, activity remained slow and sluggish on Thursday where only needy mills were seen to be picking up some quantities of cotton on the ready market. Recently, global cotton prices had also declined but buyers reportedly picked up some cotton to push up the ICS cotton futures later on Thursday.

Domestic mills were reportedly said to be on the sidelines as a credit crunch also made several of them unable to purchase cotton in large quantities. Even yarn prices were also said to be under pressure.

Sowing activity for the new crop (August 2018/July 2019) was also said to be slow in both Sindh and Punjab as water shortage was said to be acute throughout the country. Just recently some showers were reported to have started in a few parts of Punjab. Major rivers were also said to be running at low levels till now.

Lint prices for the outgoing cotton crop (2017/2018) in Sindh are said to have ranged from Rs.6200 to Rs.7800 per maund (37.32 Kgs), while in the Punjab the prices reportedly ranged from Rs.6400 to Rs.7600 per maund, according to the quality.

The Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) cotton arrivals report issued on the third of April, 2018 shows a total arrivals of 11,571,196 lint equivalent bales (155 Kgs) till the first of April, 2018 from which the domestic mills have lifted 10,867,618 bales. Exporters are said to have bought 216,615 bales while 486,963 bales of unsold cotton are still said to be lying with the ginners.

On the global market, the ICE cotton futures are also reported to have declined at midweek but were said to have made a comeback on Thursday. Indian cotton also remained subdued earlier in the week due to the financial year-end closing and local holidays. China also depicted a negative attitude where the working week was shortened due to the Qing Ming festival on Thursday and Friday.

In ready cotton sales on Thursday, 400 bales of cotton from Harunabad were said to have been sold at Rs.6000 per maund (37.32 Kgs).

Two distinguished and widely respected leaders of the cotton and textile industry, Mian Mohammad Abdullah of the Sapphire Group and Mian Zahid Bashir of the Crescent Group were decorated with the Sitara-e-Imitaz by the President of Pakistan, Mr. Mamnoon Hussain, at the end of last month. Zahid Bashir is also a past president of the Karachi Cotton Association.

On the global economic and financial front, the ongoing tariff war between America and China since the past three or four weeks remains the dominating business topic around the world. Just a couple of days ago, America had threatened the People’s Republic of China with the imposition of tariffs to the tune of Dollars 50 billion in addition to the imposition of tariffs already announced on aluminium and steel. On Wednesday, China had announced a tariff of 25 percent on leading American exports such as major food and fiber items, aero planes and also automobiles.

However, these and any other tariffs would take time before they become operable. Indeed it could take even six months before they are put into effect.

The general feeling is that such a tit-for-tat approach to tariff issues between the two countries viz. China and America could escalate trade wars between the two leading economies of the world. And sooner rather than later, this game of tariff wars could easily spread around the world and thus result in a worldwide slump in business activity. Soon thereafter, a global slump or recession would become inevitable.

Already at the beginning of this week, leading equity markets dropped sharply causing a major concern amongst economists and investors like never before.

It was thus being feared over the past several days that a mighty market bubble is being created which would burst soon and relegate the global economy into historic depths.

Thus after president Donald Trump had earlier announced to impose tariffs worth U.S. Dollars 50 billion on Chinese goods, China was quick enough to announce tariffs on last Wednesday on sundry American products such as soyabeans, aeroplanes, automobiles and various chemicals.

This retaliatory step taken by China following the tariffs announced by America on the import of Chinese goods resulted in heavy selling on the global equity and commodity markets. Economic observers around the world are of the opinion that such a magnitude of tariff impositions could damage the global economy enormously.

However, on Thursday the heated rhetoric between America and China appeared to be somewhat cooling down. As a result, equity markets in America as well as Asia, Europe and elsewhere appeared to be rising sharply to reverse their earlier losses.