US presence beyond 2014 may help ease security concerns

ALI HUSSAIN

ISLAMABAD: The continued US interest in the region with the presence of 15,000 troops in Afghanistan beyond 2014 as agreed in the recently signed Security and Defence Cooperation Agreement may help Pakistan ease its security concerns and enable it to effectively manage its border with Afghanistan.

Pakistan is yet to come up with its official response to the recently signed Security and Defence Cooperation Agreement between United States and Afghan government under which the US troops will remain in the region beyond 2014.

But security analysts argue that the post 2014 situation after the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan would not have the military backing of the international community and may therefore pose serious security threats to the regional countries.

President Hamid Karzai, whose tenure is going to expire next year in May, is making efforts to bring the Taliban fighters to the mainstream. “A stable government is not possible without ending the ongoing insurgency in Afghanistan,” they maintained.

According to the draft of the agreement, which was posted on the official website of the Afghan Foreign Ministry on Wednesday, it will come into effect on January 1, 2015, after the parties notify one another through diplomatic channels of the completion of their respective internal legal requirements necessary for the entry into force of this Agreement. It shall remain in force until the end of 2024 and beyond.

For Pakistan, analysts maintain the treaty to remain beyond 2014 will be particularly helpful as there was a concern within Pakistan’s official circles that if the US troops withdrew then Afghanistan may plunge into chaos again as it did after the withdrawal of Soviet troops. Besides, it will necessitate the US to have long-lasting partnership with Pakistan as long as its interests exist in the region.

As far as the CIA drone operation is concerned, they said that the US has claimed that they have achieved up to 70 percent of its targets and there was no indication that these will be stopped until completion of its remaining targets, as the US will continue to target those who are a threat to US security and its troops stationed in Afghanistan.

However, Pakistan has expressed its concern over a portion (Article 6) of the agreement which deals with “external aggression” against Afghanistan. On Wednesday, Prime Minister Adviser on National Security and Foreign Affairs told Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs that Pakistan informed the US sides of its concern, saying that the term foreign aggression needs to be defined.

The Article 6 of the agreement states that “Afghanistan has been subject to aggression and other uses of force inconsistent with the United Nations Charter by foreign states and externally based or supported armed groups. In the context of this Agreement, the parties strongly oppose such uses of armed force or threats thereof against the territorial integrity or political independence of Afghanistan, including in this regard provision to armed groups of support, such as sanctuary or arms, by any state or other armed groups. The Parties agree to cooperate to strengthen Afghanistan’s defences against such threats to its territorial integrity, sovereignty or political independence”.

It states that “United States shall regard with grave concern any external aggression or threat of external aggression against the sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of Afghanistan, recognizing that such aggression may threaten the parties’ shared interests in Afghanistan’s stability and regional and international peace and stability.

On a regular basis, the parties shall consult on potential political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures that could form part of an appropriate response in the event of such external aggression or the threat of external aggression against Afghanistan.”

The text of the deal further states “In the event of external aggression or the threat of external aggression against Afghanistan, the parties shall hold consultations on an urgent basis to develop and implement an appropriate response, including, as may be mutually determined, consideration of available political, diplomatic, military, and economic measures”.

The parties shall develop comprehensive procedures to promote the effective accomplishment of such regular and urgent consultations, it states, adding such comprehensive procedures shall recognize consultations involving the participation of the United States Secretary of State and Afghanistan Foreign Minister, the United States Secretary of Defence and Afghanistan Defence Minister, and respective Ambassadors in Kabul and Washington, D.C. as primary channels to initiate urgent consultations in the event of external aggression, or threat of external aggression.

”Such comprehensive procedures shall not, however, limit or prejudice the parties’ ability to consult each other in other channels or through other mechanisms, as urgency or exigency may require,” according to the text. It adds “the parties agree to direct the United States - Afghanistan Working Group on Defence and Security Cooperation to promote the effective implementation of this Article.”