Significant shortfall likely in budget estimates

TAHIR AMIN

ISLAMABAD: The country is likely to face a significant shortfall in the budget estimates of foreign assistance in the outgoing financial year as $4.28 billion i.e. 57 percent of the total budget estimates of $7.4 billion were received from multilateral and bilateral donors in the first eleven months (July-May) of 2014-15.

According to the latest figures released by the Economic Affairs Division (EAD), the country provisionally received $4.28 billion in the current financial year against $6.1 billion during the same period of last year. The government budgeted foreign assistance of $7.4 billion including $6.5 billion loans and $808.3 million grants against $5.7 billion budgeted estimate for the previous year. The country has received a total of $504.6 million grants and over $3.8 billion loans in the current financial year so far.

The government has estimated foreign assistance of about $8.7 billion for 2015-16 including grants and loans which is 10.5 percent higher than the revised estimates of 2014-15 and 21.3 percent higher than the budget estimates of 2014-15.

Pakistan provisionally received foreign assistance of over $88.54 million in the month of May (2014-15) against $1.14 billion during the same period of last year (2013-14).

The IDB(S-Term) emerged as the largest single lender with disbursement of $864.76 million in the current fiscal year and surpassed the budgeted estimate of $500 million; however no amount was disbursed in the month of May.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) disbursed $26.43 million in May while a total of $412.4 million has been disbursed so far in the current fiscal year against the budgeted estimates of $1092.19 million. China is expected to be the largest single donor to Pakistan with a budgeted inflow of $1365.49 million. The country received a total of $846.13 million i.e. 58 percent so far from China in the current fiscal year; while $9.89 million were received in May.

International Development Association (IDA) disbursed about $21.7 million in the month of May while a total of $295.83 million was disbursed in the current financial year; and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) released a total of $17.35 million to-date in the current financial year. Islamic Development Bank (IDB) disbursed $125.14 million in the current financial year.

USA released $2.49 million in the month of May and about $95.23 million to date in the current fiscal year, Saudi Arabia disbursed $19.71 million in the current financial year, however no amount was released in May, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) disbursed $21.28 million in the current financial year while no disbursement was made in May, Japan released $17.79 million in May while a total of $130.85 million was disbursed in the current fiscal year so far. EU disbursed $20.89 million in the current fiscal year so far.

The government budgeted around $80 million from Australia, Canada, Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), Italy and UNDP for the current fiscal year 2014-15; however no disbursements have been made under these heads so far as per documents.

The amount does not include releases amounting to $3.5 billion from International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the September 4, 2013 approved $6.64 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF).