Never a lull moment in the coverage of the marathon that is US presidential elections! But what is about to come will make the current coverage seem like dull days. On September 26, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will face off in the first of the three presidential debates. Some American commentators are already billing the showdown as potentially the most-watched event in television history.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Global landscape is already shrinking in tolerance towards different ideologies, cultures, and free trade. With the unfathomable Brexit event and the far-right fringe getting increasingly mainstreamed in developed democracies (e.g. France, Germany, and Netherlands), Europe has birthed a political trend away from ‘liberal vs. conservative’ towards ‘open vs. closed’.
But such a political pivot’s future may be determined on the other side of the Atlantic. Who will the Americans send to White House on November 8?
Dubbed as ‘master of material’, candidate Clinton espouses working within the system to bring about incremental changes in affairs both at home and abroad. The Clinton camp’s ethical failings aside, the former first lady is the most qualified candidate progressives could get in these times. But it is tough for her to campaign in the face of her coupling with Obama’s legacy, her own private email fracas that refuses to go away, health fatigues, and her own candid admission that she is not a “natural politician”.
One shouldn’t weave or fall for narratives, because narratives are often misleading. But the US election offers a remarkable contrast. If Clinton is ruling on the substance scorecard, The Donald is scorning points for style. Devoid of any substantial policy proposals, his energetic but irreverent and cocky style is perhaps reason why the builder from NYC has been able to hog all the limelight in this election cycle.
Like a Teflon doll, nothing sticks on Trump. He is ducking his way to the biggest prize with only occasional stumbles in the face of otherwise-threatening past scandals and current gaffes. “Romney attacked Trump’s ethics, judgment, politics, and economics. But Trump chooses to defend his steak, water and wine,” was how FT’s chief US commentator summed it up in March.
Trump is most likely going to bring the same playbook to his TV duel with Clinton. He is going to force his rival to compete on his turf, where he deploys a bunch of sophistry to appeal to unsuspecting public that feels hard done-by immigrants and globalist business. Clinton cannot win in a made-for-TV event where partisan debate moderators dwell more on the past and the personal than the future and the policies.
The polling advantage the Democratic candidate had in recent weeks is thinning. Trump’s recent ‘middle of the road’ re-set, rise of two independent presidential candidates, and concerns over Clinton’s health seem to have eaten into her lead. Also concerning for her camp are polls which indicate that Clinton’s base among black and Hispanic voters is not as enthusiastic about her as The Donald’s base among whites is crazy for him.
Amid all that, a personalized debate may throw Clinton, the policy wonk, off balance. To avoid major burn on debate stage, Clinton will have to find a way to not feel irritated by unfair debate moderation and Trump’s ad hominem tactics. Otherwise, Trump will rally independents, which have a tendency to be influenced by debate performances. Folks saying it will be the debate of a lifetime may be right. That has an ominous tone for Clinton.
