MUHAMMAD ALI

KARACHI: Dr Hafiz A Pasha, a renowned economist and former federal minister said that the latest national population census has showed 2.5 to 3 million less headcounts in urban Sindh.

Speaking at his book launch tilted "Growth and Inequality in Pakistan" at local hotel, he said that after national population census, Sindh population growth of 2.4 percent was quiet similar to other provinces with high urbanization of 52 percent.

He however said that Karachi population estimates were untrue as per his study based on three techniques - migration pattern, labor force expansion and electricity connections, saying that around two percent of total population (first generation) was migrated to Karachi.

"Despite having 3 percent growth in labor force expansion in the country, urban Sindh witnesses 4.5 percent growth. The electricity connections technique also produces similar results that confirmed the Karachi's population to 17.5 million to 18.5 million". Therefore, he believes that Sindh population in latest population census has showed 2.5 million to 3 million less headcounts.

Moreover, he said that two main factors, which badly hit the country, were war on terror and power crisis; adding that the government estimated US$ 123 billion as the cost of the war on terror since its commencement.

However, he said that methodology adopted by the government to calculate the cost of the war on terror was faulty as if internationally recognized methodology for costing war on terror, which was highly worked out after 9/11, was applied then it was two times higher than the estimates.

He said that if direct and indirect cost were included then the cost was around US$250 billion and added that the impact of indirect cost was huge on investment, exports and others.

"We paid seven times higher than US$33 billion aid given by United States against war on terror," Dr. Pasha said.

The investment rate of Karachi, which used to have 20 percent higher than rest of the country, has declined by 60 percent during 2007 to 2013 period when the city was experiencing worst law and order situation, he said and added that the metropolitan city achieved highest growth of 6 percent during Musharraf era and Sindh at that time was declared rapidly growing province. However, the growth rate had drastically dropped to 2 percent but after year 2014-15, it has now recovered to 4 percent.

He said that the government was presently executing 1148 projects under federal development program; adding that the portfolio of these 1148 projects was Rs8000 billion, of which, the government could hardly spend Rs800 billion, due to lack of capacity.

Commenting on this year Public Sector Development Program (PSDP), he said that three sectors - water, power and CPEC were considered as vital force for the future of the country and they should be given as top priority.

However, the government has allocated only 28 percent of total PSDP this year for these sectors.

Moreover, he said that government had allocated only 6 percent on water, however around Rs250 billion was earmarked for special programs, which were normally announced before general elections.

"Although the government has planned US$11 billion projects under CPEC, total allocations of PSDP this year is only US$1.8 billion so the priority has now gone haywire". He proposed PSDP's 60 percent allocation on these three sectors - water, power and CPEC in order to speed up country's growth.

Dr Pasha said that as per government statistics, the unemployment rate was roaming around 6 per cent but if discouraged workers effect was added, the unemployment rate would be around 9 percent. Furthermore, he said that around 20 percent population was based on youth, of which, 45 percent male youth (8 to 9 million) were jobless or idle in the country and added that around 1.5 million youth was jobless or idle in Sindh.

He termed this unemployment as one of the biggest problems of the country and urged all political parties to take up this issue in its next elections manifesto.

"The Sindh has 0.57 Human Development Index (HDI), which is highest among all provinces but the HDI gap among Karachi and other backward districts - Tharparkar, Badin and Jacobabad was far more than any other districts across the country".

He urged the Sindh government to evolve comprehensive policy to prioritize the development work at backward districts of the Sindh.

"Punjab with 0.54 HDI is second and KP is third with 0.51 HDI. However, the growth rate in Balochistan remains at 3 percent and never improved during last 15 years as against the expectation after 7th NFC award, which he termed as tragedy. He said that in Sindh, the population share was 36 percent in urban areas and 64 percent in rural areas but GDP ratio was 50 percent in both, reflecting 60 percent difference between the income of urban and rural population, which was highest along with Balochistan.

Dr Khalida Ghaus, Managing Director Social Policy and Development Centre (SPDC), Abdul Qadir of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, former bureaucrat Saeed Qureshi and former minister Sardar Ahmad also spoke on the occasion.