Andleeb Abbas
The firing over the Line of Control is visible and can be retaliated upon. The firing over LOW, i.e, line of water is invisible and too fluid and moving to be targeted and retaliated upon. Water is not just a local or national issue, water is now a regional, bilateral and multilateral issue that goes far beyond a nicely worded National Water Policy. The Indus Waters Treaty that decides distribution of water between Pakistan and India is under stress as India has politically, technically and regionally pushed Pakistan to the edge with the swift work on Kishanganga project while Neelum Jhelum project has become a tragedy of delays and corruption.
As the Indians control the flow of water to Pakistan and the World Bank plays a typical “let’s have another look through a neutral expert” game, precious time and priceless water flows are being diverted to serve Indian projects at the cost of the Pakistani water flows. The contested Kashmir land that has created wars and destruction between the two countries is now on the verge of contested water wars as two contesting projects are both being fed by water supplies of Neelum Valley. The rivalry on Neelum is underlined by both countries’ growing need for freshwater, exploding populations and acute water shortages as water tables keep on sliding deeper and deeper.
The Indus River, into which the waters of the Neelum ultimately flow, is one of the longest in the continent. It originates in Tibet, crosses Kashmir and waters 65 per cent of Pakistan’s territory, including the huge of Punjab province which is the food and industry hub of Pakistan, before flowing into the Indian Ocean. The Indus Waters Treaty provides India with access to three eastern rivers (the Beas, Ravi and Sutlej) and Pakistan with three in the west (the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum), while setting the conditions for water usage.
This race to take advantage over water by the two countries is epitomized by the two competing hydropower projects on either side of the river. As a tributary of the Jhelum River, the Neelum theoretically falls into Pakistan’s sphere, which launched the Neelum-Jhelum power plant project while India was working on Kishanganga dam and hydro power project. The conflict over who draws more water is almost like who draws more blood as the two nations exchange harsh warnings and are going into legal battle to solve the issue. While war on ground may have been averted war on water is on. Kishanganga, project 330MW 3-unit project can generate 1713 million units of electricity annually and was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 19th May. The danger is that this will divert water from going to the Jhelum river. Pakistan went into arbitration in the PCA (Permanent Court of Arbitration, Hague) and the decision by PCA ruled in India’s favour green signalling the construction of the run-of-the-river plant. The conditionalities placed on India were that it lowers the height of the dam from 98 metres to 37 metres and ensures a minimum flow in the river of 9 cusecs (one cubic metre of water per second) both of which India agreed to adhere to. However, Pakistan has now referred the matter to the World Bank as they fear that this project is breaching this condition.
Water issue has also become muddied with corruption and soiled with incompetence in Pakistan. Consider: Both Kishanganga and Neelum Jhelum were inaugurated in May and April respectively by both Prime Ministers. While we are trying to stop the water flowing out of Pakistan the water that is already flowing in our project is also non-productive. Neelum Jhelum project had been initially approved at a cost of Rs15.2 billion in 1989. It took 29 years and Rs506.8 billion to complete the scheme. The cost escalation is a big a dent on taxpayer’s money who have been paying a Neelum Jhelum surcharge with every electricity bill for years. The almost three-decade delay is criminal as India has made more progress with Kishenganga which was launched later.
Despite all these delays the project is still not working. Neelum-Jhelum project sustained a second blow as its unit-1 of 242.25MW started leaking oil and the management halted its operation on May 31st 2018. The unit-4 is already closed down after its rotor was damaged. During the PML-N’s tenure from June 2013 to date, the project cost increased from Rs274.9 billion to Rs506.8 billion – an escalation of 84%. In the last meeting of ECNEC, the planning secretary presented the story of corruption and mismanagement in this project to the then Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, but he dismissed it. At the total cost of Rs506.8 billion, the MW cost per unit is Rs 523 million, the highest by local and global standards.
For Pakistanis to have water beyond 2025 water needs to tackled at all fronts. While the National Water Policy must look at the water body protection, construction of dams and water quantity and quality programs, International aspects of water have to be dealt with simultaneously. Three steps need to be taken to deal with this looming international disaster. Pakistan’s case against Kishanganga with the World Bank is not very reassuring. Firstly, the Standing Committee of Senate on Climate Change and Water Issues needs to call the team led by Attorney General and take a complete stock on the quality of our legal and presenting team, their merit and their progress, as case after case the Indian team has outsmarted our international negotiation panels. Secondly, the Chief Justice has taken suo motu on power projects. He is requested to take Neelum Jhelum up as an emergency case and assign responsibility of mass incompetence and corruption and corrective action on competent people. Lastly a “Pani Pakistan” civil society movement needs to be initiated to force political parties to give clear road maps of how water issues of Pakistan will be resolved in their election manifestos. Water should be as important for the voter to make his choices in the 2018 elections as loadshedding was in 2013 elections.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])
