Andleeb Abbas
After the Arab Spring, is there going to be a Midsummer change? The political world is seeing some unprecedented happenings. Mahathir at the age of 92 makes a comeback and wins an election. More recently, Mexico sees what it has never seen in the last 70 years. The Arab Spring was basically a Middle East-centred phenomenon. The Midsummer tidings are more diverse. What has recently happened in Latin America is interesting. A region more famous for producing flamboyant footballers and some of the biggest drug smugglers has suddenly come into the center stage for questioning their leaders on corruption, performance and is now trending as a change hungry region in the world.
South America is such a contrast to North America. While the United States of America is a story of development and democracy South America is a story of instability and corruption. The Panama Canal and the Andes mountains in the South have created a geography where living standards of people resemble more of the third world than the first world enjoyed by their better half in the north. One of the reasons is the quality of leadership that has come in the two parts. The latest development in Mexico is an example of the long overdue change.
López Obrador, an opposition leader, scored a resounding victory in the recent Mexican election with more than 50 percent of the vote, and his party, Morena, made a very strong showing in congressional and state elections. This was a stunning defeat for the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party, which had ruled Mexico for almost 70 years and which finished a distant third in the presidential vote and in congressional races. López Obrador was able to capitalize on voter anger over corruption and inequality, which some attributed to market policies that failed to lift the incomes of the vast majority of people.
Latin America has been swamped with corruption scandals. Brazil has led the way. The model is very similar to Pakistan. Big guys in government, big companies, big contracts, big bribes. The growing anger over these sham democratic leaders who get re-elected again and again by controlling the financial and operational system has now started impacting election results. This loss of faith in pretence democracies can be most easily viewed through the prism of corruption exemplified by the widespread bribery scandal involving the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht. The company admitted to paying hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to officials up and down Latin America to secure lucrative infrastructure contracts. As prosecutors unraveled the scheme, presidents were forced to resign, and even placed in jail.
Mexico and Venezuela had been notable exceptions. Neither country had prosecuted a single person related to the Odebrecht bribery scandal despite evidence of millions of dollars paid to a close aide of the Mexican president, Enrique Peña Nieto of the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Brazil has been undergoing corruption scandals at the top for some time. The popular former Brazilian President Luis Inácio “Lula” da Silva is serving time for corruption, as are dozens of other Brazilians caught in what may be history’s biggest corruption scandal, known as the “Car Wash” affair. His successor Dilma Rousaff was impeached on hiding facts from the cabinet and corruption.
This wave of outrage and rejection of corruption is not limited to Far East or Latin America but is also being expressed in European politics. For the first time since Spain became a democracy, a prime minister was thrown out when he lost a no-confidence vote in parliament. Mariano Rajoy’s fall may be a first for modern Spain, but when parliament pushed him out because of a corruption scandal, his country became part of a revolt against graft that has been sweeping across the globe. From South Korea to South America, the wave of change is affecting many nations.
That is why the elections in Pakistan are an interesting study. Traditionally corruption has never been the number one issue for the voters. Many surveys in the past have described corruption ranking at number 5 or below on public issues. The most prevalent issues on top ranking are loadshedding, inflation and unemployment. Political parties normally put them in their electoral promises and win elections. However after the Panama Leaks there has been a change in the ranking of issues as awareness has increased that corruption is one of the major causes of the other issues. Thus it is interesting that Manifestos of the political parties have changed to accommodate a more people focus approach than a more project focus approach. The PPP manifesto talks more about extending Benazir Income Support Programme and removing hunger while the PML-N manifesto shifts its focus from roads to water and health priorities. PTI continues to give education and health top ranking.
The recent conviction of the ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam Nawaz in the Avenfield properties case is almost a first in Pakistan. As mentioned, there is an unwritten acceptance that governments will be corrupt and if they do some “visible” development and in the process make money for themselves it is the “done” thing. However, the recent speeches of the political parties are not the normal promise galore and the increasing talk of governance and corruption free institutions means that they feel the 46 million young voters on social media may be more aware of stands against corruption in the world and need to be tackled differently.
Manifestos and speeches are normally well written scripts that are rarely matched with performance. To make these manifestos a reality a totally different form of governance will be required. A governance that focuses on institutional reforms where service delivery is the prime focus. This will mean that old ways and style of centralized management and political appointments cannot take place. This also means that tough changes will be required in laws to enable these changes. With most faces contesting the elections being the same as in the previous elections this will be the real challenge for any party that comes into power. What will be interesting to see in the coming elections is that whether the rage against the corrupt and non-performing governments in the world is a lasting phenomenon or will this midsummer dream also fade out like the Arab spring did.
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