Firmed up in 2015 the outline of the Paris climate treaty was culmination of decades-old international consensus that global warming is an upshot of climate change, which is triggered by the release of greenhouse gases, and can be not only checked but even brought down to the pre-industrial level. Given concerted efforts and member-countries’ commitment, the temperature can be brought down by two degrees Celsius, the treaty claimed. The participating countries, 195, including greater greenhouse gas emitters, the United States and China, pledged contribution of $1000 billion by 2020. The then US President Obama committed $300 million to the climate fund, as the world celebrated the occasion. But that was not to be; none but the United States subverted the bonhomie: President Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Paris Climate Treaty. He might have the inkling that there is not much to be enthusiastic about the Paris treaty, and perhaps he was right. A study widely circulated now says that given rapid thawing of permafrost the target of controlling global warming is unachievable, as it results in enormous release of carbon dioxide. And their speed to thaw and release the polluting gas is likely to overtake the targets fixed by the climate treaty. Methane and carbon dioxide trapped in permafrost besetting Russia, Canada and northern Europe, are roughly “equivalent to 15 years of manmade emissions at today’s level”. While the implementation of the Paris Climate Treaty is time-bound and would take time to achieve its goals the thawing of the permafrost has already arrived at the “tipping point”. While the Paris treaty target is to bring down global temperature maxim by 2C the permafrost is already emitting about 1.5C to global warming.

“What the climate models do not allow for are scenarios in which Earth begins to contribute to the problem,” says a study done by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria. How much we know how our planet Earth behaves that’s just tip of the iceberg. On the face of it, it seems to be trying to “overwhelm efforts to limit climate change”. By now, we do have some idea how the thawing of permafrost is likely to subvert targets set to win the race against global warming. Then there are quite a few other natural phenomena, like super-storms, heat-waves and lingering droughts that too invite an in-depth study. “It’s just amazing how beautiful nature is, how violent and unstoppable; it just does its own thing,” says a climate scientist who witnessed how a chunk of ice about a third of Manhattan broke away from a glacier in Greenland. Sometime back, there was a media report saying an ice chunk, bigger than the size of the United Kingdom, is just waiting to break away and move out to the open sea. Should that happen there will be an increase in the levels of oceans by many meters.

Pakistan is one of the prime victims of climate change, particularly its northern region where the average rising temperature has hastened melting of glaciers. Given the country’s prosperity is greatly depended on water from the glaciers their rapid melting is an issue of great national concern; ironically, for the reason that it has virtually no role in global warming. According to a study conducted by the Jinnah Institute, the country’s snowline receded one kilometre over the last 25 years and in Siachen, it is two kilometres. Another threat the global warming poses to Pakistan is out-of-season rains, which often cause heavy flooding. And, when there are spells of heavy downpour some other parts of the country, particularly in the south, suffer long spells of drought. And, as rest of the world we should also learn to abide by the dictates of Nature – which is merciless and unforgiving.