Ikram Sehgal
BJP’s chauvinist ideology of ‘Hindutva’ leading up to the elections has increased communal tensions and violence in several Indian states. Instead of politically countering the electoral setback to Congress Party in the State Assembly elections in December last year, Narendra Modi returned to his time-tested anti-Muslim anti-Pakistan election formula to ignite religious fervour among Hindu voters in his favour in the Indian general elections due next month.
Despite Pakistan government’s categorical rejection of any involvement or responsibility in the suicide attack by a local Kashmiri from Pulwama district, and even before the Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) immediately claimed responsibility, the Indian media created a virulent anti-Pakistan hype within hours of the incident. Offering sympathy and cooperation in investigations, PM Imran Khan requested India to hand over “actionable intelligence” of JeM involvement.
“Surgical strike” being the new Indian “mantra”, Indian Air Force violated Pakistan territory on Feb 27. Satellite photos later confirmed that their payload dropped near Balakot on an alleged terrorist training camp did not cause any human or material damage. The heated deliberations before the arrival of COAS Gen Bajwa at the National Security Council (NSC) meeting convened immediately saw a consensus emerging about opting for war because the Indians had crossed a “red line” with their attack across the international border. Gen Bajwa calmed down the gung-ho participants by arguing that without no human and/or material damage, “casus belli” for going to war did not exist. Advising calm Imran Khan who had listened quietly while the emotional debate was going on supported Qamar Bajwa’s calming influence. He reminded participants that wars tend to go out of hand and drag on – Imran later reiterated this argument in his very effective address to the nation. Incidentally this was also paired down considerably from the original “fire and brimstone” draft. In its “measured response” the military formulated a plan to attack six targets in Indian Occupied Kashmir, these targets were “locked on” by JF-17 gunsights but the bombs/rockets diverted to adjacent/open space. Among the targets was an ammunition dump, a fuel dump, an Indian army Brigade HQ, where coincidentally the Indian Army Chief was presiding over a conference of senior military officers, etc. The Indian Army Chief in Pakistani gunsights sent a strong and effective message without engaging in a full-fledged war
Chasing the Pakistan aircraft involved in the low-level precision attack two Indian jets were shot down, one MiG-21 fell in Azad Kashmir while the SU-30 fell in Indian Occupied Kashmir. The MiG-21 pilot Wing commander Abhinandan Varthaman was saved by Pakistani soldiers from the wrath of the locals. Opposed tooth and nail by the chest-thumping “patriots” within the NSC, saner and mature heads supported Imran Khan’s decision to release the pilot.
Indian claims that Pakistan had used F-16s in violation of the terms under which they were sold by the US to Pakistan failed when Indian journalists spelled out that Pakistan would be very justified in defending itself from an Indian attack on Pakistani territory. Militarily politically and diplomatically the Pulwama episode and aftermath was an unmitigated disaster for the Indian Armed Forces’ reputation and Uncle Modi.
Independent observers soon commented publicly that India was pursuing its anti-Pakistan tirade for political and diplomatic gains. Pulwama’s aftermath showcased the character and mindset of the Indian government and media both. With India not interested in joint investigation of available evidence, emerging facts about the Pulwama attack are so contradictory that one feels suspicious that it was another “false flag operation” that went wrong. Submarine forays by the Indian navy being thwarted aside more adventures are expected in the near future. Swept by war hysteria, rumours are going around that Uncle Modi will try a face-saving strike before the April elections.
The international impact of its conduct was overwhelmingly negative for India, all the countries in the region, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, etc., advised restraint, “diplomatically” indicating that in case of war between India and transit through Pakistan they would be unable to keep up oil exports to India because the Gulf of Oman would be too dangerous. Even though BJP made gains in the “Hindi Belt” in the north with the blatant help of the media, there was a negative reaction in the east and south protesting India’s foray aggressive stance to get electoral votes. Hopefully Uncle Modi concludes that he has made enough gains in the Hindi Belt and does not require a “face saving” event as being feared by friendly countries who believe that this madman is capable of doing anything unless his ego is stroked. One thing is sure, both Modi and the world now know that the answer of Pakistani Armed Forces to any adventure can be very painful.
