Three events in quick succession point to increased efforts to find a solution to the long running war that can bring peace and stability not only to long suffering Afghanistan but also to the region, in which Pakistan has the paramount role in this context. First, over 50 Afghan political and social leaders gathered for a Track-II dialogue in Bhurban recently at the invitation of Pakistani groups with state support. Then, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, paid a flying visit to Kabul where he met Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah and former president Hamid Karzai. Last but not least, President Ashraf Ghani has just completed a two-day visit to Pakistan, during which he had meetings with Prime Minister Imran Khan, President Arif Alvi and COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa. If the sparse media statements available after these interactions are taken together, there is an eerie sameness to what is being said, down to even the choice of words. Every side in the conflict seems agreed on finding ways to end the war. But that is arguably where the consensus begins and ends. For example, the US is agreed in principle to withdrawing its troops provided it receives guarantees from the Taliban that Afghan soil will never again be allowed to be used against the US or its allies. Washington is not only pressing the Taliban to engage the Afghan government in an intra-Afghan dialogue that can not only feed into the current negotiations, but also discuss the shape of things to come after the foreign troops withdraw. The Taliban on the other hand insist the US must first announce a withdrawal of all foreign troops while they state in principle that they will not allow their soil to ever again be used a la 9/11. However, they adamantly refuse to hold talks with the Afghan government, dubbing it a ‘puppet’. Kabul, whatever its feelings about Track-II and other ‘unofficial’ meetings in Pakistan, Russia or elsewhere, has not come out strongly against such activities, perhaps because it knows its weakness and inability to stop this ‘sideshow’ where its representation is conspicuous by its absence. President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Pakistan, his third but after a gap of four years, indicates Kabul’s desire to position itself centre-stage in the ongoing rounds of talks lest it be relegated to the margins. The visit produced a ritual spate of statements from both sides about their desire for closer ties across the whole gamut of relations, but precious little of concrete value.

The fourth interlocutor, Pakistan, has for some time now been arguing publicly for an ‘Afghan-owned intra-Afghan dialogue’ as the path to peace and stability inside Afghanistan and in its regional environs. This is a marked difference from its alleged support to the Afghan Taliban since 2001, which arguably has led to blunting the hold of the US and its Afghan allies on the country. This defeat by attrition could have been, and indeed was foreseen by the handful of informed observers with their ear close to the ground. Washington in muted tones so far blames Pakistan for its defeat. Whatever the implications of this for US-Pakistan relations, the convergence in principle of all the stakeholders in the Afghan conundrum promises a brighter future but on the ground there remain many obstacles, some of which have been outlined above. The greatest concern for a considerable section of the Afghan people who are anti-Taliban is whether the relative freedoms achieved after their overthrow will survive a peace settlement despite the Taliban’s placatory noises in this regard. A foreign troops’ withdrawal without firm counterterrorism guarantees from the Taliban and an agreed political dispensation post-withdrawal would be the worst outcome and likely lay the foundations of a fresh civil war with all its ramifications and spillover effects. Pakistan is aware of the inimical presence of the Pakistani Taliban ensconced on Afghan soil just across the border. For this reason as well as the mutual interest of all parties in ending the conflict, all eyes, sceptical and hopeful, are turned once again on the seventh round of US-Taliban talks in Doha that started on June 29, 2019. Difficult as a settlement seems, a continuation of the bloodletting is not an option.