The fear that flooding of additional troops to Occupied Kashmir, and escalation of violence across the Line of Control (LoC) and the Working Boundary were a prelude to something ominous was confirmed on Monday when the India’s Home Minister Amit Shah announced in the upper house New Delhi’s decision to abolish Article 370 of the Indian constitution which guarantees the special status of the embattled state. The announcement followed an indefinite security lockdown, detention of all Kashmiri leaders, suspension of internet services, closure of educational institutions, and restrictions on public movement, which only goes on to show New Delhi knows it is doing something wrong, though it won’t demoralize the Kashmiri people. The provocation is expected to lead to an even greater outburst of protests. It also portends dangerous consequences for the entire region.
India has been ratcheting up tensions along the LoC to divert international attention from its gross human rights abuses in the occupied valley. In the latest incident, it fired cluster bombs - strictly banned from use against civilian populations - killing two civilians and wounding at least 11 others, including small children. India of course denied having employed cluster munitions, but as usual claimed having resorted to shelling to foil an infiltration attempt from Pakistan. Things can easily spiral out of control if such attacks continue. Following the use of cluster bombs as well as developments in the Occupied Kashmir, Prime Minister Imran Khan presided over the National Security Committee (NSC) on Sunday to review the situation. A statement issued after the meeting expressed serious concern over Indian security forces bloody repression, and “plans to use bogey of terrorism for political ends, disregarding situation on ground; use of cluster munitions against civilians to provoke Pakistan and use of disinformation manoeuvre to confuse the real intent, i.e., changing the demographic structure and the internationally recognised disputed status of IOJ&K [Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir].” The statement also warned the world that the recent Indian measures will increase the levels of violence and “turn this area into a flashpoint and destabilising factor in the midst of two strategically capable neighbouring countries.” Translation: Pakistan cannot remain indifferent to Indian merger plan for IOJ&K, and that it is a ‘flashpoint’ between the two nuclear capable states which holds grave repercussions for this region and beyond. In fact, in making that point the NSC has not said something new. Back in the late 1990s the then US president, Bill Clinton, had also described Kashmir as a nuclear flashpoint. Time has proven it remains so. Now that India is bent upon raising the stakes, it should worry the international community more. Before things take any ugly turn, influential players must take notice and instill some sense into India’s ultra Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s head.
The UN has appealed to both India and Pakistan to exercise maximum restrain amid rising tensions along the LoC. That is not going to be of any help. It should act to prevent the dispute - as recognised by its own resolutions - from escalating into a fully blown conflict. However, India’s powerful friends can play a more effective role. The country being part of the US’ new ‘Indo-Pacific strategy’ it is in the latter’s own interest not to let its strategic partner remain dragged down by an unending confrontation with Pakistan. That perhaps was an important consideration behind President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate the Kashmir dispute. As Prime Minister Imran Khan has said “this is the time to do so as the situation deteriorates there [in IOJ&K] and along the LoC with new aggressive actions being taken by Indian occupation forces. This has the potential to blow up into a regional crisis.”
Last but not least, in its response to Union Minister’s highly implausible argument that Article 370 had to go as it was the ‘root cause of terrorism’ in the state, the Congress pointed out during the debate in India’s upper house that the move was in fact ‘murder of democracy’. Criticising the government decision, Trinamool Congress said: “Trinamool is against the constitutional immorality and procedural hara-kiri committed today.” Detained Kashmiri leader Mahbooba Mufti has reportedly told BBC: “We have been let down by the same nation we ceded to.” She also pointed out that the state under the then Kashmir ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, had made the ‘wrong choice’ in aligning with India rather than Pakistan during Partition in 1947.
