Indicators show Deterioration
RIZWAN BHATTI
KARACHI: Pakistan’s external debt sustainability indicators are showing deterioration in debt bearing capacity due to higher external debt and liabilities to GDP ratio.
According to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the most common measure used to assess debt-bearing capacity is the external debt and liabilities to GDP ratio, which is gradually increasing. Pakistan’s external debt and liabilities to GDP ratio surged to 45 percent mark by end-June 2019 as against 33.5 percent end of FY18 and 27.4 percent in FY17.
The SBP, in its recent report mentioned that, other solvency indicators also deteriorated as the pace of external debt accumulation more than offset the marginal growth in foreign exchange earnings.
Going forward, however, the SBP is expecting further improvement in current account balance and realization of non-debt flows (foreign direct and portfolio investments) on the back of correction in exchange rate and initiation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) 36-month $6 billion extended fund facility.
With a rise in foreign exchange earnings, debt repayment would become easier and external debt sustainability would improve, it added.
Total external debt & liabilities (EDL) reached $ 106.3 billion by end June 2019, an increase of $ 11.1 billion in FY19 compared to an increase of $ 11.8 billion a year earlier. One-half of this increase in FY19 is owed to balance of payment support from friendly countries including Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar.
However, these inflows from friendly countries are held in the form of deposits with the central bank and it led to an increase in the foreign exchange liabilities of the country.
Nonetheless, net revaluation gains (in dollar terms) due to depreciation of major currencies like Euro and Yuan against the US dollar and sizeable amortization controlled the pace of debt accumulation to some extent in FY19.
Major part of amortization consists of Euro/Sukuk bond and long-tern commercial loans. The government was also able to retire its short-term debt worth $ 0.4 billion, compared to net accumulation of $ 0.7 billion in FY18.
The government anticipated to raise additional support by launching Pakistan Banao Certificates (PBCs) during Q2-FY19, it managed to raise only $ 26.0 million.
On the other side, Pakistan’s external debt servicing increased to $9.47 billion in FY19 compared to $ 5.64 billion. Around two-third of the principal repayments were made to commercial lenders and Euro/Sukuk bond.
In addition, a large part of these loans were on floating rates, hence the rise in the benchmark rate (i.e. LIBOR) led to a substantial increase in interest payments as well.
