Hopefully whatever ‘positive difference’ Minister for Planning and Development Asad Umar has noticed in areas where people are observing SOPs (Standard Operating Procedures) will continue to grow and consequently there is a slight dip in the number of new infected cases. It is earnestly hoped that this trend will hold and proceed with increasing speed. The Sindh health minister, Dr Azra Pechuho, has already cautioned that the country may witness a new spell or the so-called second wave in August. With the number of confirmed cases approaching the 200,000 mark, Pakistan has overtaken Mexico and become the 13th most infected country in the world. And if this spell does not drastically reduce quickly, the government will obviously need to do something more than continue with its strategy of targeted ‘smart’ lockdowns. That, of course, would not just bring utter economic devastation but also widespread social breakdown. The rest of South Asia is hardly doing much better. The United Nations now fears, on top of its warnings about “famines of biblical proportions” and millions upon millions of job losses, that the pandemic could push about 120 million children in the region into poverty and food insecurity within the next six months in the worst case scenario. Since South Asia is home to approximately 600 million children, 240 million of which are already believed to be living in poverty, such figures could tip the entire region over the edge if they really come out to be true. The pandemic has already severely affected healthcare systems across countries, and rising poverty will make crucial things like basic medical care, immunisation, nutrition, etc., a lot more difficult.

Pakistan needs to control the situation not just for the welfare of the people and the health of the economy, but also to avoid isolation as countries try to fight their way out of the lockdowns together. News that Dubai-based long-haul airline Emirates has temporarily suspended flights from Pakistan will raise concern elsewhere too. It turns out that as many as 26 passengers travelling from Pakistan to Hong Kong, and transiting at Dubai airport on the way, tested positive when they were checked at Hong Kong International Airport. And it doesn’t help at all that 10 players from Pakistan’s selected cricket squad for the England tour have also been infected. Now other countries will naturally think twice before inviting our players and what little sports Pakistani teams could play might also be compromised. One reason for this situation is that unlike the rest of the world, which waited for the number of new cases to plateau and decline before reopening, we did it while the graph was still rising. The reason, according to the prime minster, was keeping daily wagers from starving and a rush to get the economy going again. But now both could be at greater risk if the situation continues to worsen.

Unfortunately, however, at this point the government cannot do more than hope that these incidents will not push other countries, especially those that are making progress in fighting the pandemic, to suspend interaction with Pakistanis till things get better. This present bulge in new infections is clearly the result of all the mingling that took place in markets and malls when the lockdown was relaxed ahead of Eid. We will know more about the trend since then, especially what has happened since the government went ahead with its selective lockdown novelty, very soon. If the present dip in new cases develops into a significant improvement then all that the government needs to do is remain vigilant enough to tighten just the right screws at the right times to keep the situation in check. But if it fails to do the trick and ordinary people also do not cooperate then there’s no telling how deep a hole we might be digging ourselves into. Even with the G20 debt moratorium, emergency funding by the IMF and chances of some more debt write-off, Pakistan’s economy will barely stay on its feet even if all the pieces fall in the right places throughout the fiscal year. There is simply no question of surviving another comprehensive lockdown because there is just no way that the government can put together yet another relief package for the economy. Therefore what the government and the people do now will decide which side of the line we land on. Hopefully, the people will finally play their part in helping the government implement whatever strategies are needed to claw out of this hole.