Andleeb Abbas
Few things give more happiness than defeating your worst enemy. Few things matter more than being able to counter a nasty bully. Few things surpass the satisfaction of seeing a liar being exposed. Few things bring more pride than seeing your country coming out better, higher and internationally acclaimed than a ten-time bigger world darling. Those few days following 27th of February 2019 made each Pakistani proud and elevated. Unlike previous conflicts between India and Pakistan this conflict was a clear victory for the country. Each claim of India was rubbished not just by Pakistan but by experts all over the world. From New York Times to Guardian there was talk of the amazing ability of Pakistan Army to teach India some hard lessons. To top it all the decision to free the Indian pilot brought crowning glory to a country for promoting peace and de-escalating the possibility of a conflict between two nuclear neighbours.
India was stunned. For years they had this tested tried strategy of painting Pakistan as a terror haven country that could be twisted around in foreign policy to isolate it in the world. For them to try to defend that they were caught lying not just by Pakistan but by the world, that their jet was actually shot down violating air space, that their pilot was caught and then returned in a gesture of magnanimity by Pakistan, was unthinkable. For nearly two years they tried all ways and means to twist the facts but were defeated on every strategic and diplomatic front. And then comes the Ayaz Sadiq bombshell, not for India, but for Pakistan. Some bombs, even if just statements, do more damage than nuclear bombs.
Many in the country, including some experts, analysts and media, are siding by the Pakistan Democratic Movement’s (PDM’s) explanation that it was a mere statement not targeted at the army but the foreign minister. That itself exposes them. They are arguing that the statement was true but the man quoted was wrong. The damage that was done was because of the statement not because of the person targeted. What Ayaz Sadiq said was, that the glorious all round win that Pakistan earned which started a new era for the country with India cornered and being branded as the liar, was a lie. He quoted a meeting, stating that the body language of Pakistani leadership showed that the reason of returning the pilot was nerves, inability and fear of Indian attack something that the Indians were saying all along. This coming from an Ex Speaker standing on the floor of the National Assembly has put paid to all the unprecedented success that Pakistan had enjoyed internationally due to the victory in this war. This statement cannot be dismissed as a slip of the tongue due to three reasons:
1. A Pattern to the Story- PDM has a clear plan. Normally opposition targets the government. The plan is putting pressure on the state. From the first Speech of Nawaz Sharif in the APC where he mentioned the ‘State upon State’ and that he was not competing with Imran Khan but with those who brought him, the purpose was obvious. The Gujranwala speech unleashed another attack on the institutions. Karachi saw the terrible incident at the Quaid’s Mazar with Captain Safdar (retd) crossing all boundaries on the grave of the Quaid. And Quetta set the seal with clear indications of a separate state and dismissal of Urdu as a national language.
2. The Accountability Pressure- The PDM is made of 11 different parties with different backgrounds and ideologies. What has brought them together? To protest against governance. Yes, that may be a factor. To protest against inflation. That is another reason. However, if you examine the speeches of their leaders, the time given to public issues is around 30% and the time given to state maligning is the rest. Why is this heavy tilt towards the latter? Explanation given by them is that the state intervened in the 2018 elections to rig them out of power. The question is that why did it take them 2 years to raise a voice against it? Why did they put nominal petitions in the Election Commission? Why have they not published a ‘white paper’ with evidence as they said they will two year ago? Why have most of them kept quiet for such a long time? The common issue the bigger opposition parties are facing is their corruption cases. These cases, majority of them made on each other in their terms, were lying dormant for years. As NAB has started reactivating and nabbing them on it they have found out that neither the government nor the State is willing to bail them out as per past practice. This has made them desperate to stake an all-out war to put pressure on the state to give in to their demands.
3. The Economy leverage- Opposition’s job is to act as a watchdog for the public interests. Any public dissatisfaction becomes a reason to oppose and protest. The inflationary pressures on food items and the shortage of wheat flour and sugar have made people very upset. Rightly, the opposition wants to capitalize on this anger and carry out these rallies. They are also aware that against expectation COVID-19 has been managed by the government well and the economy has started picking up in the form of better exports, remittance and investment numbers. They know that the prices of food items are also likely to fall in a couple of months. They thus have a small window to protest and are constantly talking about end of December being the end of the government.
The problem with their strategy is that their stated reason to come out is public issues but their narrative is largely based on anti-establishment bursts that do not match their stated purpose. They have not been able to have a concrete public centric approach either in the assembly or the streets. That is why the Ayaz Sadiq’s burst on the floor of the assembly has been condemned by some of the PMLN supporters and now by Bilawal Bhutto as “shocking”. Even if the Pakistani public forgets, the content of Ayaz Sadiq’s statement will be forever used by India as a “truth” to wash their lies. That is why the 5th generation warfare is so complex. It deals with information, perception and narrative building that has the capacity to internally destabilize you to the extent where you become an easy target for your enemies. PDM’s ability or inability to separate their self-interests from public interests will determine the chances of their protests benefitting the people of Pakistan or the enemies of Pakistan.
(The writer can be reached at [email protected])
