New plan based on serve power demand, not computed demand

MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN

ISLAMABAD: The newly-approved Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2021-30 will be based on serve power demand instead of traditional mechanism of computed demand.

This was disclosed by the officials of National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) at a webinar jointly organized by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) and NTDC aimed

at developing deeper understanding and to educate stakeholders regarding various steps taken in preparation of IGCEP.

According to the plan, which will be reviewed in April each year, 32,000 MW of electricity on the basis of least cost mechanism is to be added to the system in the coming 10 years.

The stakeholders raised different questions on the applicability of IGCEP, the implication of any type of delay in committed projects and candidate projects.

“The formal plan has been approved by the highest forum and stands there. We should not worry about availability of power as the plan will be revised each year in accordance with ground progress of projects and demand and supply position. There is no chance of any sudden jerk in supply and demand,” said the NTDC officials.

However, NTDC officials argued that if the government gives commitment to more projects over and above the requirement, payment which is already a problem it will be more difficult.

A view was presented that serve demand will graduate with committed demand after seven or eight years, with gradual elimination of load shedding in different areas.

The representative of Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB), said that introduction of new technology in IGCEP is necessary so that those least cost projects could also be included in the plan. Hydel projects have also been included in the renewable projects. He sought viewpoint of NTDC on the evacuation of those solar or wind projects which would be away from the NTDC system and proposed that transmission expansion plan should also be prepared in parallel.

“We cannot move towards competitive bidding until and unless there is clarity that the least cost projects are feasible or not,” he added.

The representative of NTDC, Mr. Usman replied that NTDC would certainly encourage new technology in renewable generation, adding that as the IGCEP will reach implementation stage, NTDC would bring its transmission expansion plan.

However, he further contended that there can be some places in the country where evacuation of new generation from renewable technology would not be technically or financial viable.

An official of Water and Power Development Authority stated that Dasu hydropower projects is delayed by four months due to terrorist attack on Chinese and Pakistani engineers and staff.

During the webinar it was noted that the figures of net metering data and captive power plants received from Discos has been made part of the generation projections.

The officials maintained that net metering has no impact on peak demand of companies but it is a burden on distribution system of companies.

The official, however, argued that net metering is a cause for the increase in inter-circular debt.

Former Chief Executive Officer, CPPA-G, Abid Lodhi suggested that a committee of key stakeholders be constituted to include any new project in the generation plan.

In reply to a question, the NTDC officials said that 1100 MW electricity is pledged to KE during peak hours whereas it can be reviewed during off peak hours.

Nepra approved first ever Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) on September 24, 2021 thereby fixing the corner stone for future capacity additions for fulfilling future demand in a scientific and systematic way. Chairman NEPRA in his opening remarks highlighted the role of IGCEP for proper planning opportunities of future capacity additions through new emerging technologies. He further emphasized that core aim of IGCEP is to strive towards achieving cheap energy mix by promoting indigenous and renewable energy sources which is in line with the vision of Government of Pakistan.

In addition, NTDC team briefed the audience regarding strategy and methodology involved in data gathering, compilation & optimization through PLEXOS, approval of assumptions from CCI and submission of IGCEP to Nepra for approval.