ISLAMABAD: National Power Control Centre (NPPC) has determined the accumulated fuel requirement of 315,730 MTs for power sector for three months, i.e., November and December 2022 and January 2023, subject to supply of 165 MMCFD of RLNG each month, official sources told Business Recorder. In November 2022, RFO demand for Altas power plant, Liberty Tech, Nishat Chunian, Nishat Power, Lalpir, Saba and Pakgen was zero whereas demand for Hubco Narowal was 4944 MTs, Attock Gen 17748 MTs, and KEL 12080.
In December 2022 and January 2023 RFO requirement for Atlas would be 18902 MTs and 20088 MTS, Liberty Tech 17126 MTs and 15289 MTs, Nishat Chunian 13168 MTs and 7531 MTs, Nishat Power, 13236 MTs and 10333 MTs, Hubco Narowal 16417 MTs and 16005 MTs, Lalpir, 3889 MTs and 9544 MTs, Saba Power, 10150 MTs and 5804 MTs, Attock Gen. 21971 MTs and 19263 MTs, KEL 33300 MTs and 13884 MTs and Pakgen 33300 MTs in December but zero in January 2023.
This shows total requirement of HSFO (RFO) for November 2022 at 34,773 MTs, for December 163,215 MTs and 117,742 MTs in January 2023. According to General Manager, Sajjad Akhtar System Operator (NPCC) policy load management of two hours is considered as per the direction of the Power Division (MoE). Generation shortfall will increase in case of non-supply of the required fuels and any other unforeseen event.
Imported coal plants (China Hub & Sahiwal) have been considered as per availability (excluding planned scheduled outages), Merit Order, and based on the planned Afghan coal inventory build-up at the respective plant-site envisaged/ agreed among coal suppliers, respective plants, CPPA-G, NPCC, and Power Division.
Imported coal based Port Qasim Plant is constrained to one unit due to coal supply limitations on the advice of CPPA-G.
NPCC argues that imported coal availability is inflexible and reliance will be on RFO, the System Operator, considering the vulnerably of the power system in winter, strongly insists on timely/ sufficient RFO stock building at respective power plants, and in this regard, CPPA-G may be directed to streamline payments for RFO supply/ stocking.
According to System Operator, these are tentative average figures. Variation in consumption may be observed as actual system dispatch will depend on plant availability, system demand, Merit Order, and availability of the network.
In January, Sahiwal Complex & one RLNG-based GPP will be needed in the centre to support system stability. As Power Division has barred usage of HSD; therefore, RFO plants in the centre may be operated depending upon the prevailing conditions.
The existing usable stock of HSFO at IPPs in the central region is about 90,000 Metric Tons while LSFO stock at KAPCO is 45,714 M. Tons which is not usable as its PPA has expired.
The latest Merit Order for November 2022 has been considered for the preparation of these fuel requirements. Any change in merit order may reflect in overall and individual plant-wise consumption of RFO/ HSD during real-time operations.
NPCC maintains that apart from the operational requirement of fuel-oil at various power plants, the fuel-oil stock consumed must be replenished by consistent/ cyclic building-up of oil stock at all oil-based power plants in accordance with their relevant Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) so that the system requirement could be met and any power shortfall due to fuel shortage could be avoided.
The System Operator has further apprised that Petroleum Division has intimated to NPCC (OCAC Daily Sales & Stock Position) that as of Oct 31, 2022, a total RFO stock of 403,714 M. Tons is available in the country, out of which 162,925 M. Tons of stock are with Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), 71,897 M. Tons of stock are with refineries, 168,891 M. Tons with power sector and 92.521 M. Tons as dead stock. The stock with refineries and OMCs is creating an ullage issue and may lead to operational issues at refineries. Therefore, NPCC has suggested that necessary/ timely RFO stock be built at the IPPs. Any additional RLNG made available to the power sector will be utilized according to the prevailing Merit Order as and when allocated. However, variations in RLNG to power sector from the already committed supply will cause variations in the consumption of RFO as per economic merit order.—MUSHTAQ GHUMMAN