RECORDER REVIEW
KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a stellar performance during the outgoing week, as the benchmark KSE-100 Index jumped by 4,355 points, or 3.6 percent, on a week-on-week (WoW) basis to close at an all-time high of 124,379 points on Friday. The sharp rally was largely driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the smooth passage of the federal budget in the National Assembly.
The rally gained momentum following the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced earlier in the week by the US President. After days of escalating tensions and military posturing, both agreed to halt hostilities at least for now, following diplomatic interventions led by the European mediators and US President. The development was widely seen as a positive breakthrough in stabilizing the broader region and alleviating investor concerns regarding energy markets and regional trade flows. The move also contributed to a cooling off in global oil prices, which had previously spiked on the back of supply disruption fears. The easing of external threats allowed local investors to refocus their attention on domestic economic developments and corporate earnings prospects.
As diplomatic efforts gained traction and a ceasefire appeared imminent, investor confidence returned swiftly, triggering a broad-based rally from the second trading session onward. By Friday’s close, the KSE-100 index had added a net 4,355 points over the week, one of its strongest weekly gains in recent quarters.
However, the BRIndex100 closed the week in negative territory as investor caution persisted. The index shed 258.87 points to settle at 12,674.19 points by the end of the week. Market participation also weakened, with the average daily trading volume falling to 549.52 million shares compared to 597.31 million shares in the previous week. In contrast, the BRIndex30 recorded a notable gain of 1,179.77 points on a week-on-week basis, finishing at 38,263.73 points. The average daily traded volume on the BRIndex30 stood at 325.96 million shares.
Adding to market enthusiasm was the passage of the much-awaited Federal Budget for FY26 by the National Assembly of Pakistan. With a total outlay of Rs 17.6 trillion, the budget introduced minor adjustments to tax slabs and levies while projecting a moderate headline inflation rate of 4.49 percent for the upcoming fiscal year.
Despite the bullish momentum, market activity saw a slight dip in terms of traded volumes. The average daily traded volume on the ready board slipped to 736 million shares, marking a 10 percent WoW decline from the previous week’s 822 million shares. However, the total traded value surged by a substantial 41 percent to Rs 31.33 billion from Rs 22.22 billion, reflecting heightened investor interest in select high-value and fundamentally strong stocks.
The overall market capitalization of the PSX increased by Rs 526 billion or around 3.6 percent, reaching at Rs 15.062 trillion which was 14.536 trillion on the week ended on 20th June.
Sector performance remained broadly positive, with key contributors including fertilizer, banking, e&ps, and textile composite sectors. JS Global noted that textile, chemical, fertilizer, and Cement stocks were amongst the leading sectors, gaining between 4.9 percent and 6.1 percent over the week. The technology and communication sector also remained active, contributing 14 percent to the overall traded volumes, followed by banking stocks at 11 percent, investment banks at 10 percent, and food producers at 8 percent.
Among individual stocks, BNWM (Bannu Woollen Mills) emerged as the star performer, soaring by an eye-catching 40.9 percent on WoW basis, followed by BIPL (Bank Islami Pakistan) and GHGL (Ghani Glass), which gained 20.3 percent and 20.2 percent respectively. Conversely, PSEL (Pak Services) was the worst performer of the week, tumbling by 17.3 percent, followed by PKGP (Pakgen Power) which shed 11.1 percent, and PGLC (Pakistan General Lighting) fell 2.5 percent.
On the macroeconomic front, developments remained a mixed bag. The State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves fell sharply by US $2.7 billion WoW to US $9.1 billion, marking their lowest level since July 2024. This decline was largely attributed to external debt repayments, although SBP officials expressed optimism about forthcoming inflows totalling over US$3 billion from multilateral and bilateral partners in the coming weeks.
The government’s external financing program also made headlines, with fresh loans and rollover commitments totalling nearly US $20 billion secured during the first 11 months of FY25. This included US $6.9 billion in new loans and additional rollovers from key allies including China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Additionally, the government successfully inked a US $350 million financing agreement with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to support ongoing infrastructure and energy projects.
In the domestic economy, May 2025’s power generation data revealed a modest 1 percent YoY increase, while inflationary pressures showed signs of easing amid stable commodity prices and controlled monetary aggregates. The government continued to actively manage fiscal accounts, raising Rs 345 billion in the latest T-Bill auction against a target of Rs 650 billion, with marginally lower yields across all tenors reflecting easing inflation expectations.
Experts noted that while external account pressures remain a concern due to scheduled debt repayments, the gradual improvement in fiscal discipline, availability of external financing, and prospects of monetary easing create a constructive environment for the equity market in the coming weeks.
