There is a growing realization among saner elements in India that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policy of escalating violence along the Line of Control and the Working Boundary, backed by belligerent rhetoric and claims of surgical strikes, is counterproductive. In a recent issue of its weekly newspaper, the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) says the Modi government’s policy towards Pakistan has reached a dead end. Constant shelling and artillery fire have claimed the lives of scores of civilians on both sides. “It’s a purely security and militaristic approach that has further worsened the situation in the Valley.” The paper goes on to note that the [purported] surgical strikes have not stopped the attacks by extremists, offering the advice “despite all its bluster and nationalistic posturing on Kashmir, the Modi government must realize that a dialogue with Pakistan is an essential part of arriving at a political settlement on the Jammu & Kashmir issue.”
Similar views have been expressed by other left parties as well. Modi, of course, would not want to listen to the opposition parties, but can ignore at his own peril what people associated with his own party have been trying to tell him. A while ago after leading a “concerned citizens” group on several fact-finding missions to Kashmir, veteran BJP leader and its former external affairs minister, Yashwant Sinha, issued a comprehensive report describing in great detail how the Kashmiri people had turned their back on India. And among other things he too had suggested “a multi-dimensional dialogue for settling the Kashmir issue should be started between India and Kashmiri leaders and between India and Pakistan.” The prevailing sentiment in the valley has made it difficult even for BJP coalition partner in the state, Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti, to support New Delhi’s policy. In a statement the other day, she averred “dialogue with Pakistan is necessary if we are to end the bloodshed. … The people of J&K are suffering. We have to talks because war is not an option.”
War between the two nuclear-armed countries, surely, is not an option. In fact, there is a real fear that unabated shelling and artillery duels across the LoC and the WB could cause a strategic miscalculation, triggering a war that can lead to use of nuclear weapons with unthinkable catastrophic consequences. Unfortunately, New Delhi has kept repudiating Pakistan’s overtures for resumption of the comprehensive peace dialogue, blaming this country for its troubles in Kashmir. As the CPI-M pointed out, by closing off all avenues for talks with Pakistan, the Modi government has painted itself into a corner. Finding a way out may be difficult for it, but not impossible. Its influential strategic partner, the US, can and should help. Washington has been making some noises about the need for the two sides to sit down and talk on issues of contention. Apparently, it was at the urging of Washington that last December the two countries’ national security advisers met in Bangkok. Nonetheless, such meetings are unlikely to result in a major policy change unless PM Modi understands the dangers inherent in pursuing the current militaristic approach and benefits of following the path taken by his BJP predecessor Atal Behari Vajpayee. He needs to make good faith efforts to resolve the core issue of contention with Pakistan and the Kashmiri people.
